Beat The Spread: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

It’s November 28th, the turkey is in the oven, the leaves are falling from the tree’s and the Lions are down by 20 in the first half. It’s Thanksgiving. And it is glorious. I’m going to give you guys some picks that I am confident in through this weekend. I am 14-1 in college football picks the last 2 weeks, so follow me on twitter @Vin_Calderone to get my picks every weekend. Let’s take a look at my locks for all of the football in the coming days.

To preview all the action this week:

Tuesday, November 26th

Pick: Northern Illinois +9.5 (vs. Western Michigan)

A little MACtion to get the holiday week started. I like Northern Illinois in this spot. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS this season following a ATS loss.

Thursday, November 28th

Pick: Mississippi State -3 (vs. Ole Miss)

Pick: Bears -5.5 (@ Lions)

The Lions are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games, while the Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against opponents from the NFC North. I think not having Stafford kills the Lions again and they will not be able to move the ball against the stout Bears defense.

Pick: Cowboys-6.5 (vs. Bills)

The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of November. I think a frustrated and angry Cowboys team runs through the Bills. They had New England on their toes last weekend and just could not pull through late. Dak Prescott is on fire of late and looks to keep that going through the holidays.

Pick: Falcons +7 (vs. Saints)

The Falcons are 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons have fought hard to try and erase the early season struggles that plagued their September and October. Sitting at 3-8 and likely to miss the playoffs, players and coaches are both fighting for their jobs and the Falcons are still in win-mode. They should at the very least cover.

Friday, November 29th

Pick: Texas -9.5 (vs. Texas Tech)

Pick: Virginia Tech -3 (vs. Virginia)

Pick: Central Michigan -9.5 (vs. Toledo)

Pick: Memphis -11 (vs. Cincinnati)

The Memphis Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Friday games. Brady White has been tremendous for the Tigers this season, throwing for 30 TD and 7 INT. Look for him to get the Tigers going early and often.

Pick: Washington State +7 (@ Washington)

Pick: Boise State -12.5 (@ Colorado State)

Boise State has been a sneaky good bet all season long. Even on the road. And the best part about it is they beat bad teams. 7-1-2 ATS vs. teams with losing record. Love the Broncos in this one.

Saturday, November 30th

Pick: Kentucky -3 (vs. Louisville)

Pick: Oklahoma -12 (@ Oklahoma State)

Pick: UNC -8 (@ NC State)

Pick: SMU -5 (vs. Tulane)

SMU has been largely carried offensively by stud RB Xavier Jones. He’s at 1124 yards and 19 TD’s on the year. I expect him to run rampant on a Tulane team that allows 378 yards a game.

Pick: Pittsburgh -9.5 (vs. Boston College)

Pick: Michigan +9 (vs. Ohio State)

I’ve been saying it for a month now. Michigan beats Ohio State Saturday. Shea Patterson is finally hitting his stride this season. Khaleke Hudson and the Michigan defense need to be able to shut down Ohio State and QB Justin Fields for Michigan to come out on top.

Pick: Kansas +14 (vs. Baylor)

Pick: Stanford +14.5 (vs. Notre Dame)

Pick: Auburn +3.5 (vs. Alabama)

No Tua is a big deal for Alabama, of course. I might be in the minority here, but I believe Auburn has been a great bet all season, and I think the stats back it up. Auburn is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

Pick: Minnesota +2.5 (vs. Wisconsin)

Sunday, December 1st

Pick: Jets -3 (@ Bengals)

Sam Darnold got my MVP of the week on Outside the Box this week. And I think he continues to roll against the winless Bengals.

Pick: Eagles -9.5 (@ Dolphins)

Dolphins are 15-37 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game ( Stats like this blow my mind.

Pick: Chiefs -10 (vs. Raiders)

Pick: Titans +2.5 (@ Colts)

Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Pick: Broncos +2.5 (vs. Chargers)

Pick: Panthers -10 (vs. Redskins)

Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Pick: Browns -2 (vs. Steelers)

Pick: Ravens -6 (vs. 49ers)

Record for NFL picks ATS this season: 29-30***

Record for college football last 2 weeks: 14-1***

Gamble on, folks. And Happy Thanksgiving from everyone at The Final Count!

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