Beat The Spread: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

It’s November 28th, the turkey is in the oven, the leaves are falling from the tree’s and the Lions are down by 20 in the first half. It’s Thanksgiving. And it is glorious. I’m going to give you guys some picks that I am confident in through this weekend. I am 14-1 in college football picks the last 2 weeks, so follow me on twitter @Vin_Calderone to get my picks every weekend. Let’s take a look at my locks for all of the football in the coming days.

To preview all the action this week:

Tuesday, November 26th

Pick: Northern Illinois +9.5 (vs. Western Michigan)

A little MACtion to get the holiday week started. I like Northern Illinois in this spot. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS this season following a ATS loss.

Thursday, November 28th

Pick: Mississippi State -3 (vs. Ole Miss)

Pick: Bears -5.5 (@ Lions)

The Lions are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games, while the Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against opponents from the NFC North. I think not having Stafford kills the Lions again and they will not be able to move the ball against the stout Bears defense.

Pick: Cowboys-6.5 (vs. Bills)

The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of November. I think a frustrated and angry Cowboys team runs through the Bills. They had New England on their toes last weekend and just could not pull through late. Dak Prescott is on fire of late and looks to keep that going through the holidays.

Pick: Falcons +7 (vs. Saints)

The Falcons are 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons have fought hard to try and erase the early season struggles that plagued their September and October. Sitting at 3-8 and likely to miss the playoffs, players and coaches are both fighting for their jobs and the Falcons are still in win-mode. They should at the very least cover.

Friday, November 29th

Pick: Texas -9.5 (vs. Texas Tech)

Pick: Virginia Tech -3 (vs. Virginia)

Pick: Central Michigan -9.5 (vs. Toledo)

Pick: Memphis -11 (vs. Cincinnati)

The Memphis Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Friday games. Brady White has been tremendous for the Tigers this season, throwing for 30 TD and 7 INT. Look for him to get the Tigers going early and often.

Pick: Washington State +7 (@ Washington)

Pick: Boise State -12.5 (@ Colorado State)

Boise State has been a sneaky good bet all season long. Even on the road. And the best part about it is they beat bad teams. 7-1-2 ATS vs. teams with losing record. Love the Broncos in this one.

Saturday, November 30th

Pick: Kentucky -3 (vs. Louisville)

Pick: Oklahoma -12 (@ Oklahoma State)

Pick: UNC -8 (@ NC State)

Pick: SMU -5 (vs. Tulane)

SMU has been largely carried offensively by stud RB Xavier Jones. He’s at 1124 yards and 19 TD’s on the year. I expect him to run rampant on a Tulane team that allows 378 yards a game.

Pick: Pittsburgh -9.5 (vs. Boston College)

Pick: Michigan +9 (vs. Ohio State)

I’ve been saying it for a month now. Michigan beats Ohio State Saturday. Shea Patterson is finally hitting his stride this season. Khaleke Hudson and the Michigan defense need to be able to shut down Ohio State and QB Justin Fields for Michigan to come out on top.

Pick: Kansas +14 (vs. Baylor)

Pick: Stanford +14.5 (vs. Notre Dame)

Pick: Auburn +3.5 (vs. Alabama)

No Tua is a big deal for Alabama, of course. I might be in the minority here, but I believe Auburn has been a great bet all season, and I think the stats back it up. Auburn is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

Pick: Minnesota +2.5 (vs. Wisconsin)

Sunday, December 1st

Pick: Jets -3 (@ Bengals)

Sam Darnold got my MVP of the week on Outside the Box this week. And I think he continues to roll against the winless Bengals.

Pick: Eagles -9.5 (@ Dolphins)

Dolphins are 15-37 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game ( Stats like this blow my mind.

Pick: Chiefs -10 (vs. Raiders)

Pick: Titans +2.5 (@ Colts)

Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Pick: Broncos +2.5 (vs. Chargers)

Pick: Panthers -10 (vs. Redskins)

Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Pick: Browns -2 (vs. Steelers)

Pick: Ravens -6 (vs. 49ers)

Record for NFL picks ATS this season: 29-30***

Record for college football last 2 weeks: 14-1***

Gamble on, folks. And Happy Thanksgiving from everyone at The Final Count!

Weekend Recap: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in football right now

What a great Sunday. The Ravens beat up on the Texans. The Falcons destroyed the Panthers in Carolina. The Patriots and Eagles were in a defensive dogfight. And how about the New York Jets winning the garbage bowl! What a day

I can’t forget about a wild weekend in college football. The boat has officially sunk as Minnesota lost to Iowa. I feel like Iowa’s role in college football every year is to just beat good teams and ruin their season. They’ll never make it to the college football playoffs but they are always expected to win a big upset every year and make it to the B1G Championship.

Michigan beat up on Michigan State on Saturday as well. Shea Patterson had his first 300 yard game and has looked great down the stretch. I think Michigan will end up winning out. They are playing exceptional defense right now and they are starting to find rhythm offensively.

Colin Kaepernick had a workout Saturday for NFL teams. He looks very average but of course the blue check mark brigade had something to say about how good he is. I never had a problem with him and actually loved watching him play but he isn’t getting younger. Also, he’s a vegan which doesn’t bode well for health. Cam Newton is a vegan. When is the last time he played a full season? Just saying.


Falcons are playing hard for Dan Quinn. Interested to see how the season ends for them. The Kyle Allen hype train might be hitting disaster mode soon. He has looked bad for a few games in a row now.

49ers had a nice bounce back game against a tough Cardinals team. Kyler Murray is very good and will dominate the league for years to come.

The Bears still suck. Last week, I thought Mitch finally put it all together but I was wrong. I don’t think I’ve seen a player just fall apart as much as he has. I put the blame all on Matt Nagy. He constantly leaves Trubisky out to dry with shitty play calling. And then he takes him out late in the game?? What a dick move.

The Saints had a great game offensively. It looks like Drew Brees finally got his rhythm back after coming back from injury. Don’t count the Saints out just yet.

The Lions defense is absolutely horrid. They give every QB in the league career days. Remember how mad Lions fans were when they traded Diggs? They need to go ahead and trade everyone else too. Awful.

The Colts got a huge win against the Jag’s. Nick Foles struggled after being out since Week 1. Brissett has his first game back after being out a week and looked really good. Colts Texans next week should be incredible.

Lamar Jackson is so good. He makes big plays look easy. Texans looked really bad especially on defense. Gotta figure it out fast if they want to win the division.

Vikings had a huge come back against the Broncos. Man, the Broncos play every single team in the league so tough. They are such a tough win these days which is strange because they aren’t very talented.

What a weekend. On to the next one.

6-0 in college football this weekend 🔥

Weekend Recap: We witnessed a game for the ages

Happy Monday everyone. We witnessed one of the greatest college football games in recent memory. LSU beat Alabama 46-41 in Tuscaloosa. If you missed the game, you have to watch the highlights:

The finish was picture perfect. I can’t say enough about how good Joe Burrow is. Every big throw that he had to make was made on Saturday night. And I was really suprised to see how much Tua struggled. I’m sure it was just the ankle but really tough to see. I live tweeted the game. Here are some of the highlights:

Joe Burrow had the tweet of the night, however.

Elsewhere in college football, ROW THE BOAT. Minnesota beat Penn State 31-26 in Minnesota. Tanner Morgan, the QB for Minnesota, threw for 339 and 3 TD’s. I think we got our answer on if Minnesota is for real or not.

In the NFL, we had one of the craziest 1:00 windows ever. The witching hour took my soul and I lost three bets within 5 minutes!!

NFL Quick Hits:

The Browns finally got a big win, beating the Buffalo Bills in Cleveland. Baker Mayfield made big throws late and their defense hung tight in the fourth quarter.

The Packers are a top 3 team in the NFL. Rodgers is playing MVP level football and Aaron Jones is becoming a superstar in front of our eyes.

The Dolphins and Bengals have been in a competition for the number one overall pick since the season started, and the Fins are losing after they beat the Colts on Sunday. It will be interesting to see how that plays out as we inch towards April.

The Jets offense looked really good today. Darnold desperately needed to just have a mistake free game and score some points and he did just that. It will be interesting to see what the Jets do with both Gase and Darnold as we approach the final stretch of the season.

The Chiefs lost another game they had no business losing. They did not have a good game defensively and Derrick Henry ran right through them. They also let up a crucial 4th quarter TD with under a minute left to give Ryan Tannehill and the Titans the win in Tennessee. Gotta give credit to the Titans and especially Mike Vrabel. The Titans came to play and it showed from the first snap.

The Lions were without Matt Stafford in Chicago and they left without a win. Mitch Trubisky had his best game of the year. Detroit’s defense has consistently played bad this season and it especially showed against Chicago.The Bears are at 4-5 and somehow still in play to compete for a playoff spot. THIS LEAGUE.

Dan Quinn’s job is safe. There were reports that Falcons ownership were using this game to track how this season has gone, so Dan Quinn will surely keep his job another week. I can’t believe the Saints allowed the Falcons to just walk all over them like that. Drew Brees was horrible. Put Teddy back in.

I blogged last week about Minkah Fitzpatrick being the best trade in NFL history. Ok, not really, but I did say how great of trade that was for the Steelers. He now has 6 INT’s this season since joining Pittsburgh’s squad. Don’t look now but the Steelers are 5-4 and have a really good defense.

The Bucs are back in the win column. Jameis had a great game throwing for almost 400 yards against the Cardinals. They snapped a 4 game losing streak. They face the Saints next weekend. The Cardinals have been surprising people this year, especially of late. They are competitive and I think Kyler Murray is the most exciting rookie this season.

I can’t believe we already in November. As we continue down the final stretch of the football year, I’m sure it will get even better.

The Eagles had a bye week. I forgot how much bye week’s suck.

Enjoy your Monday.

NFL Week 9-CFB Week 10 Picks

It’s that time of the week again. Time to get back on track. My NFL and CFB picks last week sucked. So, time to get back on the wagon. Here are all of my picks:

Pick: 49ers – 10 (vs. Cardinals)(TNF***)

The 49ers keep on rolling. So why would I not continue to roll with them. I assume this line will go to 10.5 by game time but I’d be confident with either pick.

Pick: Eagles -3 (vs. Bears)

Time to show some confidence in my guys. Carson Wentz looked great last week while Trubisky looked bad. Covering 3 at home against a bad offense should be no problem for the Eagles. Oh, and this man is back:

Pick: Panthers -4 (vs. Titans)

One of those picks that I hate which means I should hammer it. Panthers played bad last weekend and should perform better at home to get back on track.

Pick: Seahawks -6 (vs. Buccaneers)

Jameis Winston will throw 100 interceptions against this defense. Seahawks by 1000.

Ravens +3.5 (vs. Patriots)

If a team were going to beat the Patriots this season, the Ravens could be the team. They are playing great football. It is just a matter of what Lamar Jackson can do against the Patriots defense. I expect them to keep it a field goal game, nonetheless.

College Football picks:

WVU +18 (@ Baylor)

Purdue +3 (vs. Nebraska)

Wake Forest -7.5 (vs. NC State)

Syracuse -2 (vs. Boston College)

Miami +3 (@ Florida State)

Florida +6 (vs. Georgia)

Auburn – 18.5 (vs. Ole Miss)


Big week ahead for me personally. I sucked last weekend. I lost you guys money again and I’m sorry. We will win this week. Tides will turn. That’s all I will say. I had some people ask me to post one of these with college football picks as well, so here we go..

NFL picks

PICK: Colts – 6 vs Broncos

Colts played very well against the Texans. I fully expect them to put up some points against the Broncos and cruise to a victory.

PICK: Bears -4 vs Chargers

Bears flat out sucked last week. They need to save their season. Chargers suck. Load the Bears.

PICK: Rams -13 vs Bengals

I said on the podcast that I think the Rams found something against the Falcons. I think they continue that against another bad team. Rams by a million.

PICK: Chiefs +3.5 vs Packers

This will be a dog fight. I might even consider betting the over as well. Both teams need to win to keep separating themselves in the division. I like the Chiefs to cover.

PICK: Cardinals +10.5 vs Saints

Saints have been playing well, but I think Kyler Murray is a hell of a QB and will score points to keep pace with New Orleans.

PICK: Lions -7 vs Giants

Lions are a pissed off football team. They just randomly traded one of their starting safeties. Giants struggled last weekend. I love the Lions. It feels wrong to bet them, so it has to be right.

PICK: 49ers -5.5 vs Panthers

Jimmy G and the 49ers defense have been unreal. I expect that to continue. 49ers by a trillion.

CFB picks

Wisconsin-OSU OVER 50

LSU -10.5 vs Auburn

Penn State -6.5 @ MSU

Nebraska -2 vs Indiana

Texas -2 @ TCU

UNC -3.5 vs Duke

Michigan +1 vs ND

Boston College +34 @ Clemson

Utah -21.5 vs CAL

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2019 Season Overall: 15-16 (48%) Last week: 2-4

I will continue to update every post with my record.

Gamble on, folks.